Friday, May 24, 2013

Project 870 Furniture Update

Sometimes in life things just work out. I listed the other 870 tonight. Mentioned I'd sell it with the Blackhawk furniture instead of the wood for the same price. Turns out a guy wants the other gun with the Blackhawk furniture. That deal may or may not happen (it ain't over till it's over) but switching furniture was a hassle so it's all staying where it is. 

I like the 870P with the wood. Classic and functional.

Project 870 V2 Police Magnum!!!

For awhile I have been on the fence about this project. Part of me knew that it might just make sense to get a purpose build defensive shotgun. Once I figured in the cost of a tube extension and such economically it would be about even. So I've been sort of watching for the right gun. Around here the trend in shotguns is to bolt on a bunch of stupid cheap accessories then believe your shotgun is now worth $700. Anyway I said something might happen on this project today and it did.

Enter Project 870 V2 Remington Police Magnum
Dog had to get in on the action. As you can see this gun has Ghost Ring sights and an M4 style adjustable stock. The sights are from Iron Sights Gun Works.
The stock and forend are Blackhawk SPEC Ops. The stock is adjustable in the M4 style I hate (except on M4's) but that's what it came with. I'm either going to swap the furniture for standard furniture (or the Hogue equivalent) or buy standard furniture and put this stuff away as a backup set.

The finish on this gun is not great. It was probably a police cruiser gun at some point. The guy wasn't entirely honest about that but it gave me a point to negotiate some cash off the price so that was OK. I was on the fence about going all Hoss USMC and painting it anyway so the finish doesn't really matter, just makes that decision easier. However again along the police cruiser gun theme it doesn't seem to have been fired much and the inner workings are very nice, dusty but nice.

Was able to get it out to the range for a little bit today.  The gun is noticeably heavier than a standard 870. These things are built like beasts, which is why I wanted one. It holds 6+1 which is nice. It shoots well though I might need to adjust the sights a little bit. The pistol grip gave a good angle to support the gun but put my hand in the wrong place for the controls. Overall the stock was OK I guess but it's just not for me. Got to handle an 870 with the Magpul furniture and that was really nice. It looks weird but the angles give you a lot of control and the cheek to stock is just right. Darn expensive though so it will be awhile, if ever, before I get one.

The needs for a tube extension and sights are covered as the gun already has them. Aside from replacing the furniture it needs a sling, a light and a way to hold ammo. A sling is easy, spare ammo is easy (velcro and cards), a light is simple but expensive (and I have some decision making to do there).

So that is where Project 870 stands today. The gun that was Project 870 (V1) will be sold to pay for this purchase. I borrowed money from another gun fund to make this happen so the proceeds of the planned sale will replace that cash.

 Now I'm going to see how this dirty girl cleans up.


Thursday, May 23, 2013

Thursday Odds N Ends

Got a post on the Malay Emergency in the pipe but am too scatter brained to write it today. It's my Friday so that is good.

Saw this lovely piece on the Drudge today.

911 Dispatcher Tells Woman About To Be Sexually Assaulted There Are No Cops To Help Her Due To Budget Cuts

 Thoughts in no particular order. 

- I don't know where this gal lived but Josephine County is pretty rural. If a cop needs 30 minutes to get there all they can do is take a report and maybe clean up the mess. Rural people are pretty much on their own anyway.

-I would be interested in  having a conversation about what a Sheriff's role is with the Josephine County Sheriff. Personally as a Sheriff I would answer the important calls myself if nobody else was available.

 - Budget cuts at the state, county and city level are a reality. That means fewer cops in many places. I have issues with a few things some cops do but generally they are good people doing their best and are certainly a force for order in our society. You had better accept that you are becoming more and more on your own. Get ready for it.

  -AMERC wrote about the 5 principles of patrolling today. Good stuff. Sort of like Priorities of Work the 5 P's of Patrolling are solid guidelines to stay within.

  -Project 870 might be taking a significant jump both to the side and forward tomorrow. At the risk of counting my chickens before they are hatched I will keep the details to myself till it's done.

 Well I'm going to put some work into our bags. Have a good night,

Ryan   

 

Survival Solutions Ordering Fun

My Survival Solutions (AKA the Swack Shack People) order arrived today. A copy of Joe fox's book The Survivalist Family, some seam sealer and what I thought was the Swack Shack. I was amazed about how small it was folded up. Went to open it up to look at the whole thing. Turns out they sent me a poncho. Went back to my order form to make sure I ordered the right thing, which I did. Easy mistake I suppose, they are both folded up pieces of nylon in packages.

Will advise about how fixing the problem goes.

Edited at 1630 local time to include:
Sent them an email. Received a fast reply saying to toss it into the mail and they will reemburse the shipping costs then get the Swack Shack headed my way. Wasted half of lunch time in line at the post office but the poncho is headed back to Michigan.



Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Thoughts on Insurgencies #9 North Ireland AKA The Troubles

Today I want to talk about The Troubles. I previously talked about Operation Banner An Analysis of British Operations in North Ireland.That is worth reading though it is a bit dry. So here we go.

For a brief recap the problems between England and Ireland probably go back 900 years or so. We will focus a bit more on current history. The Anglo- Irish war from roughly (start and stop points are hard for guerrilla wars) 1919 to 1922 ended up partitioning Ireland into 2 entities. The 26 counties that make up the majority of Ireland were granted Dominion status and the 6 counties that became Northern Ireland stayed part of the Empire. The 26 counties formally dissolved their last formal ties with Great Britain in 1949.

Northern Ireland makes up roughly 1/6th of the island of Ireland and is approximately 80 miles North to South and 120 miles East to West.

(Real quick Loyalists wished to stay part of the United Kingdom and were almost exclusively Protestant. Republicans wanted a united Ireland and were almost exclusively Catholic. Some folks may use Loyalist/ Protestant or Republican/ Catholic interchangeably.)

In Northern Ireland there was a slim Protestant majority and Catholics were narrowly outnumbered. The Protestants were generally loyal to England and the Catholics generally wanted a united Ireland. Protestants held all political power and filled the vast majority of the police and security forces. A slew of complicated voting laws kept power in Protestant hands.

Now we can fast forward to the 1960's. Protestant Loyalists have used their total grasp on power to discriminate against Catholics in terms of employment and housing. The narrow Catholic minority lived in cramped outdated housing and had massive unemployment.

This brings us to our first key point. People with nothing to lose are often willing to use physical force to change the established order that is the (real or perceived) reason for their undesirable situation.

The Irish Catholics were largely inspired by the American Civil rights struggle. They started organizing into groups to protest. In 1968 peaceful Catholic protests were suppressed by the Protestant government and Protestant Paramilitaries. Think Birmingham PD vs NAACP but the climate is cooler, everyone is white and the suppression is even more brutal.

I have heard the theory that the peaceful protestors were useful idiots put in place to get the RUC and Protestant Paramilitaries to overreact and let the IRA come back onto the scene. There is probably at least a shred of truth to this idea. 

In 1969 the RUC (Royal Ulster Constabulary AKA police force) and Protestant paramilitaries were brutally cracking down on Catholic Neighborhoods. A guy who lived in West Belfast at the time described them as "burning down streets and murdering people". After the Battle of the Bogside the British Army came in to stabilize the situation. Initially the Catholic community was happy to see the Army arrive to establish order. That honeymoon period ended pretty quickly. The early 70's were pretty messy with the notable Bloody Sunday On July 21 1972 where British Para's killed 14 unarmed protestors.

The British adopted a policy of open ended internment that some could argue was extralegal. Basically they rounded up all the IRA boys, tossed them in jail and threw away the key. It damn near worked except it was a massive IO (information operations) nightmare. They went back and forth on keeping these guys incarcerated. Hunger strikes by IRA prisoners were an IO nightmare for the Brits.

In any case during the late 60's and early 70's the IRA saw a resurgence that is difficult to believe. Coming into these events they were largely a group of old men just hanging out. Sort of like herpes the IRA never really goes away, they just go underground and wait till the right time to pop back up.

The Provincial IRA split off from the original IRA at this time. The IRA wanted to largely stand by while the PIRA wanted to act. This scenario of a more cautious group accepting peace and it's more aggressive branch forming a new group would repeat itself multiple times. These splits do not matter much at the big picture we are looking at but this one is notable as the PIRA had a much more local look than the overall IRA.

Historically the IRA was organized along roughly military lines. Recruiting was done through long term friends, neighbors and along blood lines. This made for an organization that was difficult to penetrate. It is important for us Americans to note that Europeans tend to stay in their neighborhoods/ villages/ communities much more than we do. Several generations of the same family living in a county is not at all uncommon. Penetrating an organization where members recruit folks they have known their whole lives is impossible.

During the mid 70's the IRA didn't need to recruit. The British Armies heavy handed tactics did it for them. As we discussed a couple paragraphs back their organization exploded. Like any rapid increase it had some growing pains. In particular their traditionally excellent OPSEC went to hell. They were seriously compromised which lead to a lot of arrests.

By the mid 70's the IRA had reorganized into the type of cellular structure we are used to seeing with Insurgent organizations.

Since the IRA typically recruited people they individually knew well it was a fairly casual process. Bobby who grew up a block over (and you knew was IRA) would ask if you were interested. If you were they would slowly bring you in. Maybe a potential recruit would do a few simple jobs (sit in a cafe and watch patrols, be a courier for innocuous items, etc) then maybe they get brought into an operation. The point is it might be a year or so before they were really into the mix of things.

As a general rule the IRA did not coerce recruits. This is a bad idea in general. People who do not genuinely want to be part of the organization are a significant security threat.

In Catholic communities everyone was involved in some part of the insurgency. Part of the reason was the IRA was part of the community.  Asking your life long neighbor to hold onto something, for the neighborhood  hardware store owner to sell you some stuff off the books, a nice old neighbor lady to occasionally host her 'nephews' for a few days, etc is an easy proposition. It helps that these community members were unhappy with the situation they were in but that probably wasn't necessary.

Many people were affiliated with the IRA to some degree. They fought to protect their communities against the Protestant Paramilitaries in times of need. However some were unwilling to go beyond protecting their community to acts of (real or perceived) terrorism. 

Occasionally the IRA would leak false information around potential informants. If that (false) information was acted on the informant would be questioned then killed.

In Northern Ireland people generally stay to their neighborhoods, or at least neighborhoods of the same group. Flags hanging on light poles or pained on street corners mark which group the area belongs to. Catholics stay out of Protestant neighborhoods and visa versa.

Initially training was conducted in rural areas. Quickly that became impossible. Training moved across the border into the Republic of Ireland and to international terrorist facilities, largely in North Africa.

Some members of the IRA joined the British Army. A good way to learn weapons, tactics, intelligence and exactly how their enemies fought. Others ended up in the US Army and Marines. These folks did their 3 year hitch then went back home well trained. The IRA got an excellent sniper or two this way.

In the 80's Libya was a huge supporter of the IRA. As AM noted conducting an insurgency that does not have outside support is almost impossible. It wasn't so much that Col Goddafi liked the IRA as that he hated the British. Libya gave the IRA TONS of Semtex, a whole lot of weapons (including shoulder fired AA weapons, RPG's and Dishka's) and tons of ammo.

The IRA provided local security in their neighborhoods (as the Protestant groups did in theirs). Interestingly despite the Troubles crime in general and murder rates were lower in Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK. The reason for this is that people didn't call the cops, they called the IRA. The IRA did not screw around. Beatings, kneecapping, tar and feathering and of course good old fashioned murder were common punishments. While arguably hypocritical (a guy might get punished for selling drugs outside of IRA sanction, while the IRA was also selling drugs) and harsh they definitely kept crime down.

Aside from security the IRA provided a variety of basic services to their neighborhoods. They built community centers, funded local programs, etc. Basically a shadow government. It has been said everything Hamas did in Palestine was stolen from the IRA's book.

Funding- Hate alone does not make an insurgency go around. The need money. Funding started with collections and raffles. Pubs in Ireland and the US having a donation box for 'the cause' was quite common for a long time.The IRA robbed a lot of banks but that got dangerous. Eventually like the mob they used funds to purchase legitimate businesses which would make a profit. Guys who never had 2 dimes to rub together opening million dollar Irish Pubs in major US cities was one way that funds were washed and used to make a legitimate profit.

Compartmentalization- IRA operations were compartmentalized to the utmost extent. First and foremost this minimized the damage any individual could cause. Second it insulated the operations cell from incriminating weapons/ equipment/ clothing to the largest extent possible.

The community largely aided in this. A sniper would not have the rifle until a few minutes before the OP. 30 seconds after taking the shot he would be out of the building. 5 minutes later he would be in new clothes (including gloves). 15 minutes later he would have showered then changed clothes again and be in a safe neighborhood.  That guy is now impossible to find, at least in the context of this OP, though they might get him later on other intel.

The IRA had female members. Some ran the classic honey pot. Others formed a direct action cell. They principally smuggled small incendiary devices into British economic targets in an attempt to disrupt their economy.

Caches- There is no 4th Amendment in the UK. Catholic neighborhoods (as well as Protestant ones) were semi regularly searched for weapons and explosives. Consequently the IRA perfected caching. Weapons/ explosives and special equipment were dropped in one cache to be picked up by the DA cell then after the OP immediately dropped into another cache. Some support folks would grab the guns, clean them and store them till they were needed again. These operational caches were used extensively to get weapons where the DA (direct action) folks needed them. In addition to operational caches deep caches were used. These were generally along the Survivalist "bury a bunch of guns in case we need them some day" sort of lines but on a much larger scale. Individual cells kept their own caches to minimize the chance of one senior logistics guy being nabbed and half the PIRA's guns getting captured.

The fusion and cooperation between international terrorist groups is worth noting. The IRA/ Libya link has been discussed already. In 2001 3 IRA hard cases who happened to be explosives experts were caught leaving Columbia where the had been training the FARC in exchange for drugs/ drug money. These two lovely groups were introduced by the Basque Separatists ETA.

Ultimately the conflict between the IRA and the government ended in a truce. Neither side of the conflict was winning and they were both tired. Along the way many of the legitimate grievances about housing and employment discrimination against Catholics were addressed which helped to improve their collective situation and thus temper separatist tendencies.

I have been writing for 2 hours now. May have some more thoughts but I cannot recall them. Am tired of writing so this post is done. May have more on the topic later.

Hope you enjoy the little lesson and just maybe can gleam some useful stuff out of it.



Tuesday, May 21, 2013

What Did You Do To Prepare This Week?

Organized a bunch of our bug out food.

Ordered a DBAL IR laser. Unfortunately it is a couple/ few weeks back ordered.

Got cash to buy the rail it will go on, either they are out of stock or Troy's website is less than user friendly. Meant to call them today but it didn't happen.

Broke down and ordered a Swack Shack.

Got 100 rounds of 12 gauge #8 shot. Small game loads are something I'm not long enough in shotgun ammo so it is being addressed. Plan to get a case of #4 shot in the next few days.

Made a big grocery store trip to restock a lot of things that have been used up.

Been putting more consideration into eating well and exercising.

What did you do to prepare this week?

Tinder Hot Box Solar Fire Starter at Camping Survival



A pretty cool product from Camping Survival. Not a replacement for a lighter or knowing how to do it the primitive way but a really good option to have. Definitely on the "I want list". Get yours here.

Monday, May 20, 2013

Bug Out Breakfast- Oatmeal Solo Stove Style

My Bug out Cooking setup. A day's worth of food, trusty Solo Stove and Solo Pot 900. The case is for the camera, not sure why it's in the picture.
I cannot claim credit for this idea. Stole it from Viking Preparedness some time back. My food bag contents is 2x oatmeal, 2x top ramen, 2x tuna, a half dozen random granola type bars (whatever we had), 1x big snickers bar, 1x peanut butter, a few instant coffee packs and some various munchies. My food setup is pretty 'bar' heavy. Generally in the field I don't stop to eat. Tend to snack a bit during the day then eat a big meal before going to bed. Aside from mild personal taste differences the only difference between Pastor Joes setup and mine is that I put the accessories into the day's bag. The reason I did that is so I could put the day's food into a side pocket or other more accessible place and go all day. Also it helps IMO to keep a day's munchies separate so you can make easier rationing choices and not all of accidentally eat the last day's munchies.  Don't think there is a right or wrong there, just different techniques.  

My cooking tools. The Solo Stove and Solo Pot 900.  Like this setup a lot. The stove not having the fire rest on the ground is good in dry terrain like the desert where I currently live. I would be comfortable scraping away a small spot (or finding a rock to set it on) then cooking, albeit carefully, with the solo stove. For packing it really helps that they nest together. An MSR type 1qt pot and some other sort of stove would function similarly but take up a lot more space since they would not nest. When the stove is inside the pot there is some empty space. I'm thinking about putting together a little spice and condiment bag to keep in there. It would give me some more options for flavoring.

Breakfast and the pot it goes in. Simple and easy. I did not go with the instant coffee, sticking to the normal drip instead. The reason for this is that instant coffee sucks. I know it sucks and do not feel a need to practice drinking it when an option I like is available.
The measurements on the side of the solo pot help you measure water which is nice.

Didn't bother to take pictures of myself cooking with the solo stove or eating oatmeal. You all know what that looks like. Anyway all was well on the chow front, my oatmeal tasted like oatmeal.

Today I learned a couple thing about my bug out/ whatever food system. 1) Need a plan for washing dishes. A little thing of soap plus a sponge is probably the answer. 2) Before I do this for lunch a fork would be really nice. A spork might be the long term answer.

Probably going to do my bug out lunch tomorrow. The reason I am doing these individually, aside from lunch getting away from me today, is to evaluate the meals individually before putting it all together. This way if for example I feel a bit weak or hungry I will know a given meal (the only change from my normal diet) was the problem instead of it being something in the overall food plan. After testing all 3 meals I will do a day of bug out food.

What are your cooking and food plans? Have you tested them? If so how?

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Accepting Prudent Risk

The concept of risk is something survivalists/ preppers are generally adverse to. We like to have this fantasy that we can somehow manage every risk. This is sadly not reality. In failing to acknowledge that risk inherently exists we do not make choices to manage it. Like any other choice when we do not make it the choice gets passed by in an unintentional way. Letting these decisions automatically make themselves can have disastrous results.

The benefit of assessing all the risks of a plan is that you can see the whole picture, weigh things and then make an intentional choice about which risks you are most comfortable making. Inevitably you will try to mitigate these risks and may be successful to some degree.

Let us look at a potential decision and the risks on both sides of it.

Where to live:

Option 1- Live in or immediately near(say 5 miles) a small town. Risk- People and crime could trickle in from town. In a WROL you might get sucked into some sort of tyrannical little fiefdom.

Option 2- Live 50+ miles from town in a perfect Rawlesian retreat. Risk- Earning a living will be difficult and replacing jobs could be impossible. If someone is seriously injured you are way outside of the golden hour. If things go WROL and you get attacked nobody is coming to help.  

Conclusion- The point is that each side of this proverbial coin has risk. Depending on your family, medical status, group setup and finances either answer could be right. What is best for the Smith's might not be for the Johnson clan.

The point is that 1) risk is inevitable and it exists in all choices. 2) By assessing risk you can make intentional choices that best suit your life and 3) Intentionally choosing the risks you are most able to handle (or mitigate in some way) will lead to better outcomes than just watching things happen.



Quote of the Day

"Colors like FDE…..flat dark earth, or as I learned it before kindergarten, brown.:
 -Flight-ER-Doc in reply to Zero's Subaru of War post

My comment on the matter. "I’ve seen quite a few rattle can camo’ed vehicles down here in fairly rural Southern Arizona. I think varmit/ small game hunting rules here are pretty liberal so that might be the reason. Not entirely sure though. To me for a vehicle that’s going to be driven around regularly the OPSEC cost to custom camouflage painting your daily driver vastly outweigh the marginal benefits. Enough vehicles are available in green/ tan that fairly discrete options are out there which will not raise any eyebrows."

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Liberal/ MSM Stupidity: Womens Rights in Afghanistan

Afghan lawmakers block law on women's rights

This article has been in the yahoo news you see when  checking your email for a few days. Honestly it baffles me. Clearly the person who wrote has either never been to Afghanistan or has been brainwashed and is borderline mentally retarded. 

 Women's rights in Afghanistan isn't going to happen. My odds out lifting Jim Wendler in the morning, beating George St Pierre in an MMA match before lunch, out shooting Gerry Miculek in the afternoon then making a better dinner than Rachel Ray are higher than the odds of women in rural Afghanistan having anything that resembled rights or freedom.  It's just not going to happen.

 Major cities may differ slightly, and are historically more western/ liberal, however in the majority of Afghanistan women have no rights and are essentially properly. Women can be raped, beaten, killed, sold or married (same difference in that culture) as the male head of the family wants with no repercussions. That is the culture and it is not going to change.  I do not say that happily but it is absolutely true. Changing rural Afghanistan, and do not be confused the majority of the population, as well as the real axis of power in Afghanistan is rural, is next to impossible. The Soviets tried for 20 years, spending untold billions and killing millions of people. If there is a way to more brutally attack a way of life than the Ruskies did in Afghanistan I don't know what it would be. Heck, We've been there for more than a decade trying the soft and nice approach. The Afghan and in particular Pastun culture is not going to change. 

 Without getting further into Islam or Afghanistan lets get back to what this article shows us. Liberals seem to believe they are capable of imposing their beliefs on anyone. They seem to believe they know what is right for everyone, everywhere. They are confused when their agenda's simply do not appeal to people. They are even more confused when legal statutes and the implicit threat of force fails to make people comply. The idea that people are willing to ignore laws, face risk or ultimately fight/ die for their viewpoints is something they do not understand.  

 

 

Firearmagedon and Garden Update

Today I had some idle time around mid day. Decided to go out to all the local gun shops kind of inventory/ price checking. Here is what I found

Gun availability- A wide variety of guns were readily available. All sorts of AR's plus other military pattern rifles. Of course lots of hunting/ 'precision' rifles, shotguns and .22's. Pistols were available though you might not be able to get a specific model. Part of that I think is just that a lot more variance is in the pistol market. [EX I wouldn't notice the lack of a 16" mid length BCM rifle when they had a half dozen various AR's on the wall. I would be far more likely to notice a Glock 19 not being there.] You could probably get something pretty comparable though. Lots of XD's and M&P's present. Glocks were sort of hit and miss.

One guy was definitely trying to get some pre panic prices (they may be consignment at which point he doesn't determine the price) on a few military pattern rifles but I've been seeing the same guns there for awhile so there do not seem to be any takers. However broadly speaking prices were OK. They are probably around 125% of normal or so.

Mags- Lots of AR mags. Prices for PMAG's, Lancers, etc were about $21ish. TAPCO AK mags from $15-20ish. Glock mags were semi available with prices around $30. That's not too bad since they were $26-27 retail in a local shop before this. Bunches of XD mags available. Didn't see ANY .Ruger 10/22 mags and only a few off brand AR .22 conversion mags. The shop that had the silly rifle mag prices had some silly prices for AK (unambiguous used steel @ $30) and M1A mags (unambiguous metal @ $50) . Hell I guess you can't fault a guy for being optimistic.

Ammo- Prices are generally coming down but availability is spotty. Saw .223 at a couple places. It seems to be running .60c a rd or so for brass cased range meat. .308 everywhere but it's running a buck to a buck and a quarter for brass cased range meat. No 9mm/ .40/ .45 ball to be found. The stuff is coming in a trickle then going out just as fast.

Full availability of shotgun ammo. Target loads, small game hunting, turkey and buck/ slug are all available. That in and of itself might be a reason to own a 12 gauge shotgun.

.22 ammo. Availability was limited at best. The shop that had the optimistic rifle and mag prices had a few inflation adjusted 325 round bricks of Federal Auto Match for $40. That price was probably optimistic guess somebody might need .22 ammo who will pay that. (In the last month and a half or so I've purchased 3 of them, 1 at $21 and 2 at $17.)

At other places I saw a few various 50-100 round boxes of .22lr. Some Winchester and some CCI. 

Well that's the firearmagedon update. In general things are getting better which is good. Unfortunately ammo is lagging behind. Hopefully that will get better in the coming weeks.

As to the garden. The strawberry plants did not die but they were definitely not going to bear fruit. They went into the trash today. The tomatoes are going well. Except a bird ate the two almost perfectly ripe tomatoes I was waiting to pluck from the vine and put into a meal. That filled me with more rage than was probably reasonable. Talked to some folks about it. Apparently you need nets to protect the maters from birds here. I'll do that tomorrow. The taters and beans seem to be doing just fine. The cherry tomatoes are good. The peppers just haven't done anything, not dead but haven't grown or anything. I'm kinda thinking they might have been in too small of pots. Stuck em in the larger ones the strawberries were in so maybe that will help. Well that's the garden update. Some good, some less good, lots of time outside and learning.

Anyway I hope you all have a good Saturday.

How is the firearm/ mag/ ammo situation in your area?

Friday, May 17, 2013

DHS Eleventy Gazillion Rounds of Ammo

I had an interesting conversation today that merited sharing here. Met a guy socially and we got to talking. Somehow the whole 'DHS is buying every bullet in the world' thing came up. (A gal mentioned it was why she couldn't find 9mm [which DHS isn't buying anyway but she is a nice lady so I didn't want to sharp shoot] ammo) He started shaking his head. I should mention this guy works for customs. Pretty common down here around the border. You are far more likely to run into one  here than if you were in Kansas or something.

Dude shared 2 interesting things that I thought were worth mentioning. First he shoots 4,000 rounds a year of pistol ammo (currently .40). Second and more importantly it is all hollow point's. Dude's been working that job for twenty years and has been shooting all HP the whole time. Between being very blunt on other topics and having no reason whatsoever to lie I'm pretty sure he was above board.

Anyway that's something to think about when you read stuff on the internet.


Worst Case Scenarios Army Style

The topic of worst case scenarios comes up a lot in the Survivalist community. I got to thinking about them and then unconsciously started using the type of thinking I am indoctrinated to on the problem. Not saying it is the right way parse; unlike some obvious cases such as tactical gunfighting or battle drills where that is what we do there are a lot more options here. This is just a way I am used to dealing with problems. Figured you all might be interested.

Do not plan on fully getting into intelligence preparation of the battlefield today. It is good stuff but well today is Friday so I just dowana. So I'll skip some parts, briefly touch on some parts and dig into what I feel like.

We start by defining the environment we will be operating in. Next we evaluate the threat. First we look at how the threat would fight in an unconstrained environment. For old school conventional fights against folks who have and use doctrine, like the Russians, it is pretty simple to accurately lay out how a mechanized company will act in the defense (or whatever). Now it gets interesting.

What happens now is we apply their order of battle to the terrain/ environment and come up with a situational order of battle. This is how we think the enemy would be arrayed in the current operating environment. After that we look at the enemies potential courses of action.

Right or wrong we typically look at 2 courses of action most likely and most dangerous. The most likely is just that, what we expect the enemy to do based on their tactics, the terrain, etc. Most Dangerous is if the enemy decided to go 'all in' with an aggressive high risk/ high reward plan what it is what we think they would do.

What we do after identifying the templates two plans is figure out the differences between the plans. Those differences are targeted as part of our overall intelligence collection plan to hopefully determine the enemies disposition (most likely, most deadly or something else). Along with high value targets these differences will make up the bulk of our intelligence collection efforts.

It is worth mentioning that neither the most likely COA or most dangerous COA are exaggerations or fantasies. Both need to be grounded in the enemies capabilities and if possible historic activities.

Obviously you will not be looking for the enemies scouts to be templated at location 1 vs location 2, obstacles in a given location or battle positions to determine between 2 COA's as a survivalist. However the principle is the same.

Example time:
Lets say Bob thinks our country has real economic problems. He sees the best case as 8-15% real inflation coupled with a stagnant economy a la late 70's to early 80's stagflation. The worst case he sees is a complete economic collapse of Argentina like proportions. So obviously Bob will not be templating these COA's on acetate then looking for the differences. He will however be identifying the differences all the same.

Some differences might be:
-Continued increase in the monetary supply (most dangerous)
-Rapidly increasing inflation (most dangerous)
-Decrease/ a slowing of the increase in government spending (most likely)
- Slow increase or steady inflation (most likely)

Next we would need to drill down those differences (Priority Intelligence Requirements AKA PIR) into specific identifiable indicators. We will do this for one of our PIR:
-Rapidly increasing inflation (most dangerous)
        -Inflation above 9%
        -Inflation increasing more than 1% in a month
        -The spread between inflation as measured by .GOV and Shadow Stats increasing 25% in a month.

Anyway after a bit more consideration I will share my thoughts on Worst Case Scenarios.

Imagine a bunch of drunks driving around with a trunk full of dynamite to get revenge on a psycho murderer during a tornado. There are multiple risks in play. It should be noted this method only really works to compare similar courses of action (in this case risks). It would not work to compare an economic collapse to a pandemic or Chinese invasion. Looking at 2-3 areas that worry you could be assessed between most likely and most dangerous to determine whether the drunk guy behind the wheel will drive you off a bridge, the tornado will get you or the dynamite will blow up. Hope my iffy analogy makes sense to you.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

RE: When They Come For Your Guns



I enjoyed this Hoss USMC video. Like most things his perspective is well thought out and logical. Dude just makes sense.

Here are my thoughts on the video:
1) It should have been titled "IF They Come For Your Guns". Personally gun confiscation is pretty low on my list of concerns. Though if I lived in Kalifornia, New York, Chicago, etc I might feel differently. Simply cannot see that happening in most of the US. Anyway moving on.

2) People are more important than things. I can get another gun much easier than I can recover from lethal wounds. This is made much easier conceptually if you have backups, in this case guns with ancillary stuff, stored someplace other than your home. That brings us to Caches.

3) Caches. Like I talked about before you have to consider the context of a cache. In this case I would look at the type of people you might store things with first. Like John Mosby said more or less "Hiding crates of Mosin Nagant's in the basement of the Gun Club's President is not a sound plan". An ideal candidate to cache some stuff with would be either for your cause but very quietly so or relatively neutral about it but very pro you and thus willing to help you out.

In terms of proximity a cache would need to be far enough away from you to be unaffected by the event that concerns you but close enough for you to get to if that event happens. Obviously a cache of guns buried 5 feet from your house or stored with the next door neighbor is a bad plan. On the other hand a gun 2,300 miles away isn't very helpful either. Somewhere between a mile and a hundred miles is probably a good way to go. Of course that is just a rough idea. Obviously a quarter mile from home buried in the state park would be fine. Political boundaries are also a consideration. If you live in California a buddy in Oregon/ Nevada/ Arizona would have some real benefits. Ditto for Cook County, Ill and Pop's Farm in Cornville.

Of course like any other cache appropriate planning and preparation is required.

4) Bait Guns. While I have my doubts about how unwinding all the the NCIS and ATFE 4473 mess for all guns on a national scale but lets just say that happened with some degree of effectiveness. In any case unless they are literally going block by block, door to door searching homes the folks knocking at the door probably know you have some guns. It would probably be a hard sell to convince them you do not have a single firearm. At a minimum that would likely garner unwanted attention. Since you want them to leave, not get deeper into your life, that is bad.

Awhile back Maine Prepper had the excellent point not to try giving them a broken rusty BB Gun and saying it is your only gun. A more realistic option might be a handgun as well as a shotgun / .22/ rifle. The first advantage of this plan would be you have these guns in the home prior to this hypothetical confiscation. A rifle to go hunting, a pistol and shotgun to defend your castle, whatever. If these are basic guns they can be very functional but had purchased at modest costs; particularly if you can buy them when opportunities arise. An old .38 and a Mosin Nagant or pump shotgun could be had for under $500. Aside from the benefit of having more quality guns now you can show them what they expected (which is to find some guns) getting them out of your hair. The second benefit would be that you are meeting their expectations which will get them out your door faster.

As to the rest of your guns? If folks are just doing a door to door search they came and found (or you handed over, whatever) your bait guns then I'd keep my mouth shut. Talking as little as possible around Cops is not a bad idea anyway. On the other hand maybe somehow they unwound all or part of the NCIS/ 4473 mess. At this point they are asking about the Glock 19 SN 12345 I purchased on 9 June 2008 at Shooters in Columbus GA. This rather unlikely scenario is one of the biggest reasons to buy paperless guns.

Well in most of the US private sales are currently legal with no requirements for documentation or going through an FFL. A plausible lie that would be very difficult to improve might be the order of the day. I sold a bunch of guns a few years back: when I was getting stationed in Germany, was out of work for a few months, needed money when the Mrs got pregnant, had to fund a move from Ohio to Kansas, realized I hadn't hunted in years, swapped it for auto repair on a car that's since been sold etc or something else plausible like it fell out of the boat on a fighting trip, was stolen and you mindlessly forgot to report it, lost it in a poker game or whatever. The point would be to choose something that would be plausible and generally matches with some known facts from your life, yet would be just about impossible to disprove. I like events years in the past that occurred in other areas. Sure if the proverbial federal 'eye of mordor' shifted onto me they could try to track down an older shade tree mechanic from Kansas circa 2009 but in a mass confiscation scenario that would not get run down. I suppose this would be easiest for somebody who hasn't bought a papered gun in years that has also made a big move or two. If you've always lived in the same town and bought an AR-15 last summer it might be a bit harder to be convincing and vague at the same time. 

It is also worth noting that you would want to rid the home of ammunition, accessories, etc for guns you are hypothetically claiming are no longer in your possession.  I expect a mag or box of ammo in the back of a closet could be explained away. However huge stacks of ammo cans and dozens of AR-15 magazines  and Glock 17 magazines for the guns you claim to have sold/ whatever would be a hard sell.

So anyway those are my thoughts on that. As always your input is welcome.