I have been up to my eyeballs is OPORDS. Aside from my brain hurting as I think of minute details something happened. I got to thinking. A worst case scenario is sort of like our enemy.
One of the things we do when describing our enemy is to talk about their courses of action.
So here is the question:
1. In your opinion what is most probable worst case scenario that we face?
2. In your opinion what is the most dangerous worst case scenario that we face?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
![[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_4.gif)
![[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_4.gif)
Posts
31 comments:
Civil war, left vs right
Most probable: A continuing death spiral of taxes, monetary inflation, zilch economic activity, and more gooferment instruction (i.e., this TSA at the train and bus stations for the psuedo drug war).
Worst case: Societal collapse aka TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) due to Zimbabwe inflation, never ending War, Pestilence (i.e., bio terror attack) accompanied by everygrowing larger gooferment.
imho
Most probable: in my opinion, hyperinflation.
Worst: societal collapse.
The deline/transformation of our economic and social structure that will result from the abuse of power and the failure to understand and address the needs of a functioning complex society in "the modern world" based on "growth" and cheap oil. civil war, left vs right? I'll go for "regionalism"
WMD; In any form; limited attacks destabilising the house of cards and accelerating the fall down into a mater of days. C5
Most probable,widespread economic collapse,unemployment,etc. Worst case,nuke's,an asteroid, or some major natural disaster.
Most likely: Economic collapse and minor civil strife.
Worst: Severe economic and societal collapse, leading to TEOTWAWKI. As stated by others, war, worldwide natural disaster, etc would be the likely culprits.
Craziest: Zombies! I'd like to take on a shambling horde! And I'm not talking about a golden horde. I'm talking moaning, staggering, meat-decaying-off-the-bones Zombies!
You know, I have already lived through a lot. I can't really imagine much worse than some of the events I experienced in Venezuela during coups and such.
Once we had only 1 barrel of water, our family along with another family of 6 who got stuck in our house for days because of a coup followed by curfews.
So water storage is very important to me! Worse case scenario would be no water.
I say this some trepidation that my remarks will be construed as wishful thinking.
The worst case scenario I think involves more "gooferment" ( I LOVE that!) activity in our lives. A complete TEOTWAWKI would at least allow for NO GUBMINT coming to provide "help"!
1) Economic problems that throw us into a Soviet-style life of lines for toilet paper and food.
2) Lawlessness by .gov or .civ as a result.
Read up on New Hampshire HP 6 & Oklahoma's shot along with Arizona. Washington state & Missouri may come in later if they don't pansy out. Ref; urbansurviral blog. The worst thing that can happen is if the Dollar fails in the eyes of the Feds & that will be an excuse for unfettered Federal intervention in our lives. Perhaps those preparing now will be labled hoarders and everything taken. Trucks stop running. Hence no food deliveries, Roving gangs and simply those who cannot feed their families running rampant.
Most likely: economic depression, increasing unemployment, hunger and deprivation, and civil unrest. Unrest could come from a variety of sources: taxpayer vs government, previously entitled folks who are no longer getting nanny-care vs government, left vs right (that includes the above discussed), citizens vs business, have-nots vs haves (French revolution style), or any combination of the above.
Worse case: total collapse that we can't even completely imagine. For sure, collapse of government, no economic activity, martial law to enforce entrance into shelters, wide-spread hunger and death d/t lack of sustainable healthcare and so on. On top of that, taking advantage of a weakened nation, some kind of even greater disaster, maybe the bird flu or terrorist attack.
I can imagine some states banding together to go it alone against the fedgov. Fedgov may not be able to provide much in the way of any kind of relief; states might be better off working together. Some state (maybe SC) is already drawing up a bill to prevent Fedgov intervention where it is not constitutionally spelled out.
We already have signs and symptoms of an image-weakened and a bit shop-worn administration. Look at those close up photos!!! Read about the apology letter to Amadinabutt, taking heat from the EU and having to back down to the Buy American theme, really poor vetting of government appointees, and now the latest - having to take time-out and go to read to kids. Does NOT present the strongest image of what the US needs in a depression and a multi-faceted threat from the middle east, Mr. Putin, Mr. Parrot-on-my-shoulder, and possible incursions from the south of the border. Oh, yeah, and North Korea is working (again) on a missile that just this time might be able to reach our western states.
Thanks for asking the question about scenarios. Makes me think, a lot.
Most likely economic depression. Most serious would be a social or political collapse as a result of that depression.
Worse case scenario is also the best case opportunity for some.
Economic collapse is not only a most likely scenario, but inevitable. It is only as function of time and pressure.
My question is this: when 25% of the population is out of work, and can't pay their mortgage, where do those people go?
It is interesting to note that Fannie Mae has instituted a new policy of allowing occupants of foreclosed properties to remain in their homes and pay rent while the property is being marketed. On the other end of things, Fannie Mae guides have changed on what mortgage products are saleable on the secondary market. They wont buy a mortgage where the borrower has more than 4 mortgaged properties (including the new loan). This has effectively stopped a large portion of investors from purchasing new investment property (there are fewer landlords). The only investor buyers are either cash, hard-money (private loan borrowers, which is really just someone else's cash), or a novice/inexperienced investor who has 25% or more to put down on a non-owner-occupied property.
It seems we are moving to an era of the usurers owning everything. Very few people own anything outright, and I'm talking about businesses as well as we the people. What does this do to private ownership in our country?
I hate to sound like a NWO tin-foil hat guy, but it just doesn't sound that far-fetched anymore.
Actual fighting between the government and government supporters and people who have had enough of being screwed by the same.
My personal worst case scenario is a big forest fire that burns down my compound and leaves me with 20 + years of accumulated preparations gone at age 56. If the rest of the world collapses into anarchy, I'll be fine up on top of the mountain if there's no fire.
Worst case scenario would be a global catastrophic disaster. All out nuclear war would likely be the worst of the worst. Ever read the book "The Road"? That's as bad as it gets as far as I'm concerned. Anything worse would just kill everyone and no one would have to worry about trying to survive. A super volcano erupting, a particular virulent disease or a giant asteroid striking the Earth would be up there as well.
My first though was, "Most likely/worst case for what category?"
Economy: Most likely - further economic decline through 2010, and the accompanying fall-out (joblessness, civil disobedience/riots, higher overall taxes).
Worst Case - Nanny uses this as an excuse to institute more draconian measures ending in a fully centrally managed economy.
Constitution: Most likely - further eroding of 2A rights, more guns deemed dangerous, cop killers or assault weapons. Ammo restrictions.
Worst case - no guns for anyone other that .GOV "servants".
Constitution: Most likely - Fairness doctrine re-instituted to clamp down on conservative radio. Cut off the dissenting voice.
Worst case - Centrally planned and approved sources of information.
1. In your opinion what is most probable worst case scenario that we face?
When considering this there are many separate questions for me. Is such and such an individual occurrence plausible? Is another different dystopia likely? A Third? Then, what is the plausibility of more than one happening simultaneously or co-associatively?
Within this construct, the likely worst case scenario is a three-part equation consisting of 1) some level of collapse of the economy as an inexorable result of collectivist shenanigans (IMHO nearly 100% guarandamnteed) and 2) Green theology becoming manifest in the diminution of productivity and distribution (less certain because the public at large sees Green as globaloney), all resulting in 3) the imposition of martial law or a functional analog (wage/price controls, gold confiscation, etc.) The Gooberment will absolutely positively strive for people control a/k/a gun and bullet control, but that will be less effective due to the general recalcitrance of the 2nd Amendment community, as opposed to their Vichy counterparts in the NRA. Can any one of these happen? You betcha. More than one? Yup.
2. In your opinion what is the most dangerous worst case scenario that we face?
Civil war between the civilian populace and some portion of the military industrial complex (after it is released from any Posse Comitatus constraints) coincident with a human pandemic or agricultural blight engineered by some American educated cadre within the Wahabbist army of pit dwelling murder moneys.
I believe the most probable event is some form of economic collapse. The governments "bailout" will do little to slow it and may actually precipitate it long term due to the tremendous debt load we are taking on. The severity & depth of the collapse will dictate whether inevitable societal unrest is local, regional or national.
The worst case, aside from a situation like Cormac McCarthy's "The Road" involves our government. A catalyst can come along that allows the government to expand its reach to level that is the catalyst for social upheaval, civil war or revolution. While this is worst case, it is also possible. For many people, the beilef is that this must come to change tyhe direction of our nation. The coming decade will be interesting to watch unfold.
Most probable: Nationalist fascism/socialism whereby the USA goes from an implicit global empire to an explicit global empire.
In other words, we continue our standard of living by blatantly oppressing other nations instead of doing it subtly and economically, like right now.
They won't take your guns, they'll arm everyone and institute a much stronger thought police.
Worst case? Exogenous event like a meteor strike or magnetic pole flip, making food production impossible for a year or two--massive dieoff, near total anarchy.
Most probable: a high end quake in the east followed by a medium new madrid event (overdue)
Continued record cold spells for the next 72 years. (ongoing)
Increased meteoritic impact events as we experience more NEO's (ongoing)
floods late spring, early summer.
Famines, followed by disease. (world event)
Solar weather events followed by complications here. Communications disruptions and power outages. (anytime now)
Hypercane storm event ( 1-5 years)
increased volcanic activity as now evident in Alaska. 3-5 volcanoes should pop world wide. (large scale world wide events with resulting complications) Imminent.
Civil disorder following in the wake of any or a combination of events.
That was a 1-5 year forecast.
Worst case:
Maximum New Madrid Event 50/50 chance.
Any increase in volcanic activity in Yellowstone. (highest probability)
Asteroid impact event. I'm not saying extinction level here. Large asteroids are not singular they have many smaller companions. I would predict companion impacts and near misses by the larger rocks. (Imminent)
Give the state of today's economy any combination of the above WILL lead to complete disorder in the shortest time frame possible. I calculate that to be in the high 80 % range. This percentile will not go down but increase exponentially. For every bullet we dodge, tomorrows event probability increases. Have a nice day , Dragon
A slow spiral down economically with the Government taking more and more control - walking over the 2nd Amendment rights as well as a land grab under the ruse of repayment of debts or forfeture of land due to some perceived infraction against the Government's "rules" followed by civil unrest by those that are either frustrated by the Government's actions or by those that are considered the "have nots" against what they perceive as their "right" to take.
I think this could be exacerbated and hastened by a Mumbai type attack or large scale terrorist attack or natural disaster...
God have mercy if any of these scenes play out...
Most Probable: A political messiah spawned by the coming and inevitable depression. Quickly followed by the 21st Century version of cattle cars and gas chambers.
Most Dangerous: Ibid.
The end of the world as we know it? Take a look at the world as we know it. Are you really going to shed a tear? Individuals often never change their lives for the better until a personal catastrophe happens. The same goes for societies. Remember Rome? The same things that were happening then (debasement of the currency, effeminacy, refusal to have children, materialism, licentiousness, militarism, troops in every land across the known world) are things we are witnessing right now in the U.S., except the U.S. State is about 10 times as large as the Roman Empire. Things were pretty grim for a few centuries after the fall of Rome. But then they got better. Much better. Welcome, TEOTWAWKI. Welcome.
Most probable worst case scenario:
Depression #2 and continued loss of Constitutional Rights
2. Most dangerous worst case scenario that I think will happen:
The loss or destruction of the US electrical grid by
a) EMP (would also take out most vehicles)
b) Solar flares that burn out all electrical transformers (similar to solar storm of 1859)
c) Foreign terrorists
d) Domestic saboteurs who are fighting the fedgov's increasing expansion
e) Technical error during an electrical overload
The US is so dependant on electricity that any collapse of the national electrical grid that lasts for more than a week will end up in mass riots, starvation, crime, and disease that would push us to a 3rd world status. All the electrical necessities of modern life and commerce will cease to function - water purification, water & gas pumps, oil refineries, computers, telephones, traffic lights, heaters (even gas/oil heaters need electricity), air conditioners, refrigeration, food planting, harvesting, processing, and distribution, etc. All the existing fuel and foodstuffs will be confiscated by the police and military "for official use only".
Zegon
1. Add my vote to the economic depression/hyper-inflation scenario as most likely. Soviet-era breadlines. Reeducation camps and confiscation of private property.
2. Worst case, short of nuclear, asteroid or zombies, would be a natural disaster like Yellowstone.
That would make for a pretty good disaster novel. Mega-volcano. Don't forget the citizen round-ups ala "The Collapse."
3. My greatest fear is the rise of a despot in America.
Economic collapse followed by societal collapse with an exponential rise in crimes. Gun confiscation, as well as confiscations of "hoarders" supplies including takings of "excess" solar panels windmills etc for the good of the people.
Its best to not stick out to anyone. Keep your cards very very close to your chest. And make sure your kids or parents are on the same page. And if they can't keep there mouths shut then there will be some things that they will not be informed of.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_monday_031027.html
We have until June 2010 before the max baby boomers retire and the dollar tanks to 30Cents so get out your little piece of land trailer and move out of the cities.
zombies think about it zzzzzzzoooooommmmmmbbbbbbiiiiieeess thats very wcs
Post a Comment