Our loyal correspondent Humongous sent me an email on this topic. He works in a Maximum Security Prison and wondered about my thoughts on what would happen if things went all SHTF. I do not have a ton of knowledge in this area but that hasn't stopped me from writing about all sorts of other topics so why should it be an issue for this one?
I think prisons fair more or less OK (I think some prisoners in Katrina had a rough time but not out of purportion to everyon else) for short term and localized disasters. Just about everywhere has power outages and such so they have (at least I imagine) plans for that. As for local disasters I think bussing to somewhere else is pretty much the answer everywhere. That works if there is a flood in this region or the like.
For a slow slide sort of situation in general I think prisons would fair reasonably well. They are the kind of think that a government (at whatever level) would have to fund. When you are broke you stop eating out but keep buying toilet paper. The wildcard for this sort of situation is that political types could make radical changes is policies or early parole to drop their operational costs.
Me thinks a genuine full on TEOTWAWKI is what our correspondent was mostly thinking about. Broadly speaking I think there are 3 possible options: 1) The prisoners dehydrate/starve/freeze to death in their cells. 2) The prisoners leave the prison and are free. 3) The prisoners are intentionally killed by the guards. I will talk a bit more about each of these broad options a little bit.
1. In my opinion this is probably the least likely scenario. Unless all the prisoners are securely locked in old school small cement cells with heavy metal bars and all the guards decide simultaneously to just go home this would not happen. This would be somewhat probable for an individual or two in a small isolated local jail if the deputy who was on duty was for whatever reason unable to return.
2. This scenario is the most likely in the big picture though it would depend on some other factors. It is also the most likely because it is the most openly defined. In this scenario the prisoners could be freed or escape. I would not be supprised that if a lot of lower security facilities ended up turning the prisoners loose. As for the more dangerous prisoners in more secure facilities me thinks their large scale freedom would be the result of an escape. I think in the security area older prisons would face far better than newer ones as they tended to rely on lots of metal and big walls not security systems and electric fences which rely on power.
In a prison with lowered security because of less/ no power the odds of prisoner escape would be high. Also if prisoners had enough info about what was going on outside to come up with a plan and execute it knowing the guards could not hunker down and wait for help it could get ugly. Most likely I see a combination of those two factors leading to most of the prison breaks.
3. The guards intentionally kill the inmates. I do not see this happening at minimum security jail camps and such. This one would need a couple of conditions for it to come to pass. First of all the facility would need to have the capability to keep inmates controlled in their small cells for awhile regardless of their desperate attempts to free themselves. Second of all the person in charge (might not be the head guy but the one on the scene who is functionally in charge) would need to have a grasp of the true seriousness of the event they were involved in and the implications for letting these violent dangerous criminals loose in a world without law and order. This would take a combination of being pragmatic and a really cold hearted mother fucker. Third the guards who were left (some would not show up and some might abandon their posts with useful equipment and guns) would have to have the means to kill the inmates in a not up close and personal manner, basically guns and enough ammo to do the job. That shouldn't be a big issue unless someone has already cleared out the gun cabinet and or ammo storage on their way out for the last time. I think that in more conservative areas with more of a law and order type philosophy there would probably be more dead violent prisoners than escaped violent prisoners.
I could see the guards potentially separating the non total psycho inmates and putting them on their way then making sure the real nut jobs never get out.
As for what I think would go down by and large. Prisoners in minimum and medium security facilities would mostly go free be it by jumping over the fence or walking with their personal belongings through the front gate. For maximum security prisons I think it would be more likely to see a combination of escape attempts (large or small, peaceful or violent) and mass executions. Also a few would probably have one botched by the other and darn near everybody ending up dead. Maybe the inmates make a go of it and a guard in a good position with a rifle takes a lot of them out or the guards try to make like it is the bloody days of the French Revolution and the inmates rush them and do some real damage.
I do know that JWR considers prisons in his regional/ local retreat advice and this makes a lot of sense to me. Do not make a mistake of underestimating them because they would be poorly equipped. Pretty darn quick these predators would arm themselves and most would start reaking havoc.
I would not want to live near a prison (I say prison intentionally there are jails all over the place) say within a 40 mile radius of one.
Thoughts?
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8 comments:
Thanks for tackling that. I was thinking full blown TEOTWAWKI. I think I can go with a combination of your ideas. Some of the less threatening offenders might be released, but the more dangerous ones would either rot in a secure location or be executed. As you said, prisons do rely upon electricity, and also redundancy. It would take me quite some time to count all the locked gates you would have to go through in order to get free at my prison. Those aren't electrically controlled. But eventually, with the determination and resourcefulness that these knuckleheads have, they would get out if you just left them to their own devices. I wonder who has authority to make the kill/release decisions? When you're in a prison, you see the dynamic at work. You see how they treat authority figures, civilian medical types, and each other. Most of the fellas in the maximum security environment are not a blessing for normal society under current conditions. With what they learn in prison and all the tricks that they add to their bags, it scares me to think of them free. Even worse if there was a general lack of law enforcement on the streets. I'm not a blood-thirsty kind of guy, but to my way of thinking a lot of these fellas might need to be eliminated. And as usual, I have more questions than answers. So at what point do you whack and/or release?
And before a TEOTWAWKI, prisons need to be considered. You wouldn't believe how much money is spent on these places. Between salaries, maintenance, heating, cooling, lighting, medical, dental, food service, and especially boondoggles/lawsuits- these places cost an amazing amount of money. If/when the country is gonna run out of money, when do they start limiting the food and medical treatment for these cats? I read that somewhere on the east coast they were already dropping them down to 2 meals a day. Maybe taking away the weight machines and limiting the calories wouldn't be too bad of an idea.
Yep, jails are for those folks waiting for trial or who aren't going to be in for long. Prisons are for convicted felons.
Prisons are a growth industry right now, and a job's a job, so barring a major breakdown in society, it's not a bad place to work.
My best guess as a guy in Corrections:
The minimum security inmates would almost certainly just be shown the door, and they can easily get out by themselves if it comes to that. Wardens will have been prioritizing where their rapidly shrinking force is put, and watching druggies and con men will be way down on the list.
Maximums may just be left to die of thirst. Many maximums (here in AZ at least) are not good for shooting inmates in their cells, and I certainly wouldn't volunteer to do it either. However, I'd expect those to hold the inmates for a few days, making them dead or dying.
Mediums are sticky. There's quite a few nasty folks in there, and they aren't as easy as a max facility to isolate. I think that mediums would have the shooting and mass jailbreak issues, at least here in AZ.
I agree with a lot of what you say. I'd guess there would be some instances of all three scenarios, depending on local conditions, and like you said, minimum v. maximum security, and individual guards dealing with individual inmates. I think a lot of escapees (the non-violent ones) would first try to get home. But the more violent ones would, as you say, arm themselves quickly and steal whatever they need/want.
I never thought about not living near a prison for this reason, but it's something to think about.
Seal the units with oxyfuel welding kits. Better to be a cold-hearted mother fucker towards the scum of the earth than let them loose to terrorize the countryside after it hits the fan.
Deprived of food, your average Joe Sixpack will be every bit as vicious as a convicted felon.
Said felon might have a lot more experience in dealing with (and in) violence though.
Then again, they also have WAY more experience dealing with people under harsh conditions, keeping an underground economy running ... generally keeping things up in the face of adversity.
Humongous, You are very welcome. I pretty much talked about the only possibilities so some combination of them are what would happen. That seems right to me. Newer prisons rely on electricity far more than older ones (pre 1950ish to throw out a date) rely on big cement walls and lots of bars. If prisoners could get out out before they died of thirst would be the real question. Me thinks unless they were more than halfway into a plan anyway it would not work. As for who would have the authority to start offing them? Me thinks it would need to be someone with access to arms and ammunition and at least some (rank or personality) authority over the rest of the prison employees. Maybe an administrator or a senior guard.
Tweel, Very interesting insights. The vintage door full of bars would make shooting inmates idiot proof but lots of newer setups would make just walking away the better option.
BGM, Being out of easy walking distance of a prison would be very prudent.
Michael Hawkins, Good to see you its been awhile. My concern is less with intent and more with ability. A 120 pound weakling might want to kick my ass but a 260 pound boxer very well could be able to.
Matter of factly most of these folks (at least in Max security) have proven quite clearly they can't function well in society. Unless you are very close to them (family) I would not want them anywhere near me.
In a fast collapse SHTF scenario, I think number two would be the most likely. You have to think of all the family members and gang affiliations that these people have on the outside too. The guards, if any of them even stayed past the first few days, would be pulling double duty. They would have to be conscious of threats and break-out attempts from the outside as well as the inside.
After seeing what they are up against, the guards would probably move onto number three from there, or just say fuck it and let them go.
I am glad you wrote this. I have been working on a bug-out-location post for my blog. I might have to use this as a reference. Thanks!
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