A Guest Post: Survivalism

• noun: the policy of trying to ensure one’s own survival or that of
one’s social or national group.

I have noticed a very sad trend in the prepping community. It’s a lack
of critical thinking and rationality. It’s a problem of illusions and
fear. This is my attempt to help dispel some of that, or at least
channel it constructively. Most new preppers are told to create a
threat analysis as their first step. This is a fantastic idea, except
that a moment later they are usually then given really bad advice.
That advice is in terms of suggestions of things to worry about. I
have seen dozens of these lists, and almost always have a very serious
flaw. They list everything from home invasion, to local natural
disasters, to TEOTWAWKI events. They seem to uniformly fail to
actually have a rational threat analysis in them.

Statistics are your best friend and worst enemy. Statistics can be
scary. They can also be horribly misleading if you lack data. Everyone
is told that most car accidents happen close to home, but nobody
bothers to think about the fact that most car Trips happen close to
home. Seeing the statistics for the number of people who get mauled by
bears is interesting, but more helpful if you include the statistics
for the number of people who think it’s funny to poke them with
sticks. Yes there are 18 thousand homicides each year according to the
CDC. Very scary until you realize that that’s 0.006% of the
population, and that 630 thousand die from heart disease and 117
thousand from accidents. That doesn’t even take into account how much
of those deaths are gang/drug related, and the fact that most people
are killed by someone they know, and not a stranger. I’m not saying
you shouldn’t have a defense plan; just that the diet/exercise and
safe driving plans need to come first.

Plan for the things that are most likely to kill you first, plan for
the unlikely things that scare the shit out of you second.

Planning for survival does not just mean planning for some future
event that might change your daily routine and the face of the world
around you. Planning for survival means doing things that increase the
statistical likelihood that you and your loved ones will live long
lives.

Having a huge cache of food to survive natural disaster or TEOTWAWKI,
while eating fast food every other day is Not Planning For Survival.
If you have a large collection of guns, but don’t practice the 4 Laws
of Safety, , you’re still not a survivalist.
If you have a great bug-out-bag, but can’t carry it up a flight of
stairs without getting winded, you’re still not a survivalist.
If your car trunk is equipped with enough tools and supplies to get
you through any disaster, but you drive like a soccer-mom on her
cellphone, you’re still not a survivalist.
If you have the best plans for TEOTWAWKI ever, but can’t manage your
day-to-day life, you’re still not a survivalist.
If you can hunt, clean, and cook your own food, but spend most of your
paycheck on booze and cigs, you’re still not a survivalist.
If you can make your own candles, forge your own steel, and farm your
own food, but can’t be bothered to switch off the modern electric
light when you change the bulb, you’re still not a survivalist.
If you can cut your own trees and build your own house with them, but
can’t take tool safety seriously, you’re still not a survivalist.
If you have tons of tactical training and the best equipment in the
world, but don’t bother to pay attention to your surroundings on a
normal day, you’re still not a survivalist.

If you drive drunk, you are an anti-survivalist.
If you eat tons of junk food, you are an anti-survivalist.
If you smoke three packs a day, you are an anti-survivalist.
If you drown your problems with alcohol, you are an anti-survivalist.
If you can’t maintain relationships with others, you are an anti-survivalist.
If you can’t be bothered to exercise regularly, you are an anti-survivalist.
This list goes on and on.

TEOTWAWKI events happen, just ask a European Jew. However they are few
and far between. The likelihood of you being killed, or even living
through one is less likely than some asshat running a red light and
t-boning you. Getting struck by lightning is rare, but avoiding large
open spaces while carrying your fishing pole in a lightning storm is
easy to do. Being eaten by zombies is pretty scary, but more people
die from infected paper cuts than zombie bites.

Prepping isn’t about creating plans that you will put into effect when
X Y and Z events occur. It’s about organizing your life to maximize
survival. Your daily routines will affect your rate of survival more
than any emergency response plan. Prioritize you preparations, plans,
and routines based on the true risks, and the ease of responding to
threats. First create a plan to alievate the risks you are already
artificially creating for yourself. A personal example is I don't
drive at night on the roads most infested by the rats with hooves, or
if I have to, I drive slower and more carefully. Wearing the proper
safety gear for whatever activity you are doing can make you more of a
survivor than any pug-out plan. After you fix the day-to-day problems,
then you can create a matrix of potential future threats by their
likelihood, severity, and the ease/cost of response.

Critical thinking is the single most important survival tool you have.
Use it as often as you can.

-Michael N