Well It's 2010

We have had a nice pretty quiet day. Ran some errands then went to the library for books and DVD's. Their DVD collection is pretty decent. Certainly not a rental store but good for just getting something to break of the monotony of bad TV. Spent the rest of the day hanging out at home. Had dip and chips for dinner which we enjoy and then went for a long walk. Saw the ball drop on some Spanish TV network and watched the fireworks from our window.

Wifey is on the phone to her mother 'from the future'. I am sitting here reflecting on the last year. In some ways it was better than 2008 but in many others it was worse. Honestly in Aug-Oct 2008 there were a couple times I thought our economy was going down. I remember one day when the stock market dropped something like 500 points and a few banks failed. After watching the news on the TV at work I quietly excused myself to go get all the cash the ATM would give me, from two separate accounts. I did that to add to the cash we already had lying around. At that point I probably would have given a 30% chance of a banking holiday over the weekend.

2009 was in many ways a surprisingly anticlimactic year. It was bad but not in a things go all Mad Max sort of way. It was more of a "you might loose your job and taxes are going up left and right while banks continue to randomly fail" sort of way. There was no shooting neighbors to protect your cereal, just a good old fashioned depression. I know that is a technical definition that some economists will give after the fact but a depression by any other name........

We got a new President but as they said in the song "Only the names have changed." There were lots of plans and discussions and hope but little if anything was actually accomplished. The try and pass everything at once plan created a bottleneck where nothing got passed. We started 2009 in two wars and left it still in two wars. The year saw about a eleventy hundred gazillion dollars borrowed and a few gazillion more just printed. Probably more importantly a lot of people lost their jobs. The official numbers are a bit above 10% so once underemployed and such are factored in it is probably more like 15%. The dollar isn't worth much while gold and silver have gone up in price significantly. Our debt to China is becoming a joke that isn't funny because it is so true.

What will happen in 2010?

Maybe the log jam effect of political plans and programs will clear up and some of that stuff folks like me are worried about will get passed. It looks like some sort of health care bill is going to be passed. It will lead to more government control and windfall profits for insurance and drug companies. I imagine in the short term precious metals prices will adjust downward but after that who knows. They will then go up and stay the same for awhile, then go down, then up, then stay the same and then go down again. I think the dollar is going to go up some in value. Not so much because the US is doing awesome (our massive surplus binge doesn't seem likely to end) but because of the recent problems in Dubai and Greece plus looming debt concerns about the UK. It is becoming apparent that other countries did all the stupid stuff the US did though maybe less dramatically and a bit later.

It seems that Iraq is going pretty well though what could happen when we really start drawing down is anybodies guess. Iran's recent power play plus concerns over sectarian issues are all looming. This might however be more like 2011-12 time frame. Afghanistan is the real question mark but we will just have to see how this surge goes. We will likely have a very good idea what the outcome is going to be by fall 2010. Terrorism is going to continue to be a mobile, nation less and motivated threat.

I think the 2010 mid term elections could be very interesting. A swing of the pendulum back towards the right is quite possible. It is a distinct possibility that the Dem's will loose the coveted 60 votes in the Senate.

Personally I think you should keep the proverbial wagons circled. At a minimum keep expenses reasonable and try to pay off as much debt as possible while stashing something just in case. Don't stop living your life but it probably isn't the time to take that two month long epic 5 star trip through Europe or buy a shiny new sports car or do the dream remodel to the kitchen. Buying some guns and ammo if you are in need and working on your food storage and all of that common sense stuff still applies. However being ready for a drastic and potentially long loss in income is probably more useful than say, building a fighting position in the front yard to protect from the Johnson's frontal assault to get your Crispix. It will probably be a boring year of depression.

Maybe I am completely off base. I know for a second I would not have imagined President Obama being elected so it is anyone's guess. We can talk about what happens next year.

Happy New Year!!!