Sunday, February 17, 2013

Firearmagedon Tailing Off?

TEOTWAWKI Blog called it a few days ago and over the past 24 hours it has picked up the pace a bit in AZ (specifically Southern AZ).

AR prices are trending solidly down. I think the folks who came too late to the 'double the new price for your used AR' party are starting to realize there are not people left who can/ will pay $1,600+ for a basic PSA/ Oly/ DPMS/ Bushmaster let alone a generic Franken AR. I am now seeing these guns more in the 1k-1,200 range but nobody seems to be buying, at least in a hurry. Low end AK's like WASR's and Yugo's are down to the 1k range for the most part though I did see a Polish 74 at a $650 asking price.

Some mags seem to be slipping down in price as well. Saw some PMAGs for 30 (gently used I think) to 35. USGI in the $30 range. A few Tapco AK mags at $25 a piece. Factory full capacity pistol mags, especially of the Glock flavor, Ruger BXP-25's and some other less common stuff is basically not available. Though one guy had Ruger BXP mags listed for $70.) This is weird because this stuff was being listed, albeit at stupid prices, a week or two ago. The only thing I can figure is buyers are waiting it out and potential sellers are not desperate.

The one sad face, at least in my AO is ammunition. Evil semi auto ammo is next to unavailable at sane prices. On the private market 7.62x39 is running 45-50 cents a round (steel) in quantity and higher for smaller lots. .223/5.56 is going for 75 cents a round (brass, a bit less for steel) or higher. .308 is occasionally available a box or two at a time in more expensive hunting loads at a buck and a quarter a round. Anything on the private market is about a buck and a quarter a shot.

Other rifle ammo is generally available and prices are relatively unchanged.

Pistol ammo is sporadically available at close to pre panic prices if you do not care about manufacturer/ load. It is solidly available at higher prices in stores that marked it up and on the private market. Mark ups vary for 40% to 100+% with 9mm ($20/50 is the best deal I have seen in awhile) packing the highest premiums. Interestingly premium type defense ammo is still widely available. As Tam would say "Bubba and Cletis aren't buying more than a mag of them there holler points". I suppose the folks who are able and willing to stock the good stuff deep did it awhile back, probably at better prices.

Shotgun ammo is fairly available locally if you are not picky.  Of course the low cost Walmart type buckshot is gone but it is available at slightly higher prices.

.22lr is available in small quantities. Everybody has shifted to just making the little 50 and 100 round packs. Most stores I have been to recently has at least a few boxes, usually with a 2-3 box limit. A person can get the stuff but not necessarily in their favorite flavor.

Without the benefit of a crystal ball I would say that unless you are really desperate, which we could arbitrarily describe as less than a fighting load of mags (7x30's or 11x20's for a rifle, 4 mags for a pistol) and enough ammo to reload them all 3x, holding off might be a good idea. Your money will probably buy a lot more gun stuff in 2-4 months.

[Of course the decision would need to be based on multiple factors. The first of which is your finances, the price difference means a lot more to some folks than others. The next would be the totality of your other preps as well as your overall 2A preps. Example a guy with 6 Glocks and a trunk full of mags for them but only 3x mags for the sole M&P is in a fine spot overall. Don't stress only having 500 rounds for the .308 if you have 10 cases of ammo for the AK, etc. The last factor would be what you think is going to happen.

Anyway that is what is going on here in Southern Arizona. What is going on in your neck of the woods?



5 comments:

Aesop said...

Saw a PTR-91 sitting on the rack for $2.5K. No takers. Duh. Even the stoopid people aren't that stupid.

China Mart is gutted unless you need .25 auto, .32ACP, or 7mmMag hunting loads.

Otherwise, most gun stores are spreading out the hand and long guns to make the racks look less empty, and the ammo shelves are bare except for stuff that was premium priced everyday, not just for the Great Hopey Dopey Panic of 2013.

Ryan said...

Aesop, I had a guy try to swap me an FA-91 (low end G-3 clone with an aluminum receiver) that he valued at $1,800 for the ACOG. Was not interested, especially at that price.

I would like a decent G3 clone but not at loony tunes prices.

1389 said...

DIYers are coming up with ways to make their own guns that nobody needs to know about:

3D Print your own high capacity magazines and other firearms parts

Anonymous said...

Similar report in KY. Pmags vary from store to store, but anywhere from $30 to $35. CProducts mags $30.

AR variants coming back in stock and lower in price - Generic Bushmaster and DPMS in the $1100-$1300, still overpriced, but lower.

Ammo is the trick to find, but it is also slowly getting better. 7.62x51 for $0.70 is available.

5.56 in the $0.80 to $.90 range. That won't last.

I am in agreement - unless you are still bone dry on firearm preparations, you'll get more for your money in 60-120 days.

The run on gun related items was sharper in '12-'13, but not as deep as last time in '08. Folks are 1) getting satiated and 2) running out of money. Anyone speculating at this point is at severe risk of being upside down in value

Anonymous said...

Let me add-

If 5.56 ammo does stay up for next 6 months, expect AR variant prices to continue to fall as folks trade down for AKs, pistols or just back to cash.

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