Modern Survival Online did a post recently
questioning the conventional wisdom. Though I consider
.38 special/
.357 mag a common caliber (probably behind
9mm but narrowly ahead of
.45 acp and
.40 in the real non gunnie world) his point is valid. I have been stewing over it for awhile until today
Tam talked about
the availability of 5.45 commie which made me want to chime in.
Since common calibers are something I promote it made me really think. First I got to thinking about what makes a caliber common. A few characteristics come to mind:
1-Wide commercial availability. If a small place like a hardware store sells ammo what they will (normally) have is a pretty common guide. This varies slightly regionally but
12 gauge,
9mm and
30.06 are common while 16 gauge, .357sig and .204 Ruger are not.
2-In the closets/
ammo cans of a large number of average people with whom you could potentially cross level or trade. The stuff your paranoid neighbor, gunnie uncle or whatever are likely to have. Odds he will have a
12 gauge or
.308 are higher than that he will have a .300 blackout or 6.8.
3-Modern ammo made in the USA (or wherever you live) is available. If importation was restricted this stuff would become unobtanium even though it's all over the place today. This affects the economy of a lot of old WWII surplus rounds putting them on par with conventional hunting rounds in terms of economics. It is a bigger problem for 5.45 commie and some other rounds that aren't (to my knowledge widely) available in the US made variety at all. If you choose to go this route stock ammo DEEP. I'm talking closer to pallets than cases because there is a viable possibility you may never be able to find it again.
4-Total rounds available. The sheer amount of a given caliber of ammo in a specific region. This is interestingly different from the first two because it may include military calibers that aren't really used by civilians. Example
.50 BMG is not in many gun stores and few people have a gun in it. However there are millions if not billions of rounds stored away at various military installations and a few larger police departments. While admittedly rounds not widely on the market are uncommon by definition in the race to the bottom this gives it an advantage over a round like .408 CheyTac.
I think these criteria are more or less listed in terms of importance. While it isn't exactly quantifiable we could arguably rate these from 1-10 (or whatever) then add them up and divide to get a number. Stuff like
.22lr and
12 gauge would probably be 10 but .475 Linebaugh would be more like a 2.
As it relates to the current firearmagedon:
-Since everybody is scared about evil black rifles being messed with this means the ammo associated with them (
.223,
7.62x39 and
.308) are naturally in high demand. You CAN GET THEM but just at sucky prices. It seems like around here in Southern Arizona bulk pack type .223 (55gr PMC, etc all) is going for 80 cents to a buck a round with more desirable (M855, JHP's etc) ammo going for 85 cents to a buck and change a round.
.308 is running at least a buck a round. However you can get it. Since the supply is larger somebody will eventually be induced to sell at the right price.
Conversely there is simply no 6.8 or 10mm auto to be had locally at least without swapping a nubile 18 year old daughter or something else of comparable value. If there are 7 boxes of an uncommon caliber in town it's a lot less likely you can get your hands on 4 of them.
-Any time you try to buy something that is in high demand it's going to cost you no matter how common the item is. Hot pizza is worth more when the pizza joints have closed down. A bottle of Jim Beam is worth more after the liquor stores and bars close. If there are a bunch of hungry folks who want to drink more both are going to cost you dearly. It's simple economics.
-To me the answer to this is to stock enough to ride out the occasional bad 3-6 months. Have some doomsday ammo but put aside a few boxes for range duty to get you through a dry spell.
-Sure like Tam said getting an AR upper or AK in 5.45 commie could give you an option but you would have to be putting a lot of rounds downrange to break even on the initial investment. Personally since it's a nitche item I wouldn't buy it at the expense of an AK in the common 7.62x39 or another
.223 AR.
Anyway those are my .02 cents on that. Thoughts?
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