Letter to my sister- Communication and Bug Out Plans

I got to talk to my little sister for awhile today. Not doing a great job of keeping up with them in general, and especially since I have been here is a failure of mine. Anyway she is doing pretty well. Also making some good progress in preparedness. She has a loaner pistol, a modest on hand stash of cash, a growing stash of food and a coleman stove as well and camping gear. Her next plan is to stock up on fuel for the stove. I suggested some more staple food (pancake mix, rice, etc) because it can feed you for a long time for not a lot of money and is good to have around in general. She asked me about communication today. After talking a bit I realized what she really meant was communication and plans. Without getting into too much detail if things get hairy she is going to travel approximately 25 miles to a place with a better setup. She would have 1 child and 1 adult coming along. I told her I would think on it a bit and then write a post. So here we are. Obviously if cell phones, the internet and landlines are all functioning it is pretty easy to make a plan. If you need my help with that one I don't think there is anything I can do for you. Obviously we are talking about times when modern communications such as we know and come to rely on them are not working at optimal levels. There are numerous reasons this may be but the end results are the same so no point in discussing them. Interestingly my little sister is young enough that by the time she was self mobile and active with a part time job, friends, etc she had a cell phone and pretty much everyone else did also. Being able to call anybody, from anywhere, at any time is basically a given for probably everybody below the 35-27 year old (depending on exact location, socio economic status, etc) range. There is a reason that my sister said communications and I am focusing in on plans. Communications for if power/ cell phones/ the net are not working is pretty doable if you are willing to work at it AND THE OTHER PEOPLE YOU PLAN TO TALK TO ARE ALSO. First of all a simple land line with an old corded phone solves most problems as phone companies have batteries that will run the length of most power outages. So for the cost of keeping a land line you can typically make calls to other land lines. Personally I don't have many plans at this time that rely on being able to talk to anybody so it is not worth the expense. However that is different for everyone. The more complicated question is how to talk when you and the person you want to talk to are not both at places with a land line, and know where the other person is to call that line.

FRS (family band, the motorolla type you see families with camping, etc) radios are line of sight. I say again these radios are line of sight. I have personally used them for over 10 miles but it was ridge to ridge in the mountains with nothing but air in between. In the woods, flats or town a range measured in hundreds of meters is probably realistic. These you will have to test in your AO but they do not have the range to be useful outside of your farm or neighborhood in any case. The next options is CB radios, yes like the kind that truckers use. I do not know a ton about these other than that you can buy them at radio shack or on the internet and that everyone has a cool name called a handle. These are nice because also like FRS you do not need a license to operate them, at least IIRC correctly. These are far more powerful than FRS and have a much longer range. I'm not positive but I think several miles is quite realistic. I've heard you can boost the power and thus the range drastically but that is not legal. These are probably good for talking across town or to the next town a couple miles down the road and a good part of the county. For most families these would probably be a good solution. Modest cost and modest hassle for a pretty good range. To get further there are two viable options that I can think of ham radio and satphones. Ham radio is more of a hassle than CB but not overwhelming I don't think. It is on my list of things to do. Satelite phones are a great option but at great expense.

Sometimes I answer a question in a very different way because I know what people mean. My sister said communication but MEANT PLANS. Her, BF and whomever else could get CB's for less than the price of a one night getaway to a large regional city and be able to communicate easily if they so choose. Of course it should be noted that these radios are not secure and are in fact the equivalent of yelling in a large dark room full of people. Everyone listening might not know who is talking but they hear the message. However for this type of scenario assuming you keep conversation relatively vague and do not mention your super secret bunker or convenient to access huge stash of Krudgerrand's it is all good. Most of the desired communication is so generic it would not matter. Useful conversation like "I am near X so it is more convenient for me to pick up the kids, see you at home" would be just fine. The root issue however is plans.

Plans are a very broad topic which would be impossible to address fully in a post. IIRC another guy did a great post on this topic once but I cannot remember or find it to link to. Simply put you need a plan on how you are going to go from a variety of everyday situations (at home, at work, running errands, kids at a friends/ school/ daycare, etc) to wherever you are planning to go (home, a relatives house, a bunker in the woods, etc) with whatever stuff you think would be useful under a variety of circumstances including closed roads, downed bridges, possible riots/ security issues. Travel through dense urban areas, areas with numerous choke points such as bridges or tunnels and just plain long distances substantially complicate planning and decrease the odds of a successful trip under bad circumstances. Driving through the burbs out of town to your uncles farm 50 miles away is probably a strait forward plan, unless there are 2 sets of projects and 6 bridges along the way. The good news is that if you had to rate the complication of these trips from 1 being super easy and 10 being cross country starting in NYC the trip my sister plans would be about a 1.5 as there are a few areas which are denser than I would like and a choke point or two.

Since the route is not an issue the big thing is getting everyone consolidated and ready to go in a quick orderly fashion. Numerous questions must be thought through in advance. Do you leave work or finish the shift (what is the decision point between the two)? Who picks up the kids? What vehicle(s) are you taking? What stuff is getting packed? Where is it? If someone does not make it home right away how long do you wait or do you go without them? If you go without them what supplies do you leave behind? What stuff is most important for you to take? These questions cover a lot of ground which is why it is best that you do not decide this stuff on the fly, or even worse on the fly when you and an important family member (spouse, adult child, etc) are not together. The consequences for you zigging and them zagging could be significant ranging from unpleasant (them sitting in a cold dark house eating uncooked food) to downright disasterous. Having the ability to communicate helps a lot but radios fail when you need them most so it is better to figure this stuff out. You need to know that if there is a terrorist attack or a riot your husband is coming home but if there is a bad snowstorm he might have to finish the shift. Maybe the plan for one scenario is for the fam to wait a little while to link up at home and for another (snow storm comes to mind) they will head out separately. This is where having a plan for packing is key. Obviously every adult would need their defensive weapons (a pistol is enough for most of these scenarios and that is just because you should carry one anyway), their 72 hour bag and standard car emergency stuff. Combat loading is probably a good idea for the rest of your stuff. Simply put combat loading divides stuff into smaller groups based upon suppying a sub group, instead of all like items. That way if a boat/ plane or truck goes down it does not have all the ammo, fuel, food, etc. This would be most important if you plan to leave separately and or take multiple vehicles. One car having all the clothes and shelter stuff, another the food and a third the ammo and fuel would be a bad plan.

I know this covered a lot of ground and I am not sure where else to take it. Any questions?

Happy Thanksgiving

As is appropriate I have spent some time today thinking about what I am thankful for. I have a lot to be thankful about for sure. I am very thankful that Walker is well and we are all able to spend this holiday together as a happy little family. While it has medically been a crazy couple months for us we all appear to be in good health. I am thankful that we aren't struggling to keep a roof over our heads and food in our stomachs. I am thankful that between preps and saving we can feel pretty secure about our overall situation. I am thankful that my sister is here and we are going to do some traveling this weekend.

It occurs to me that most of the things I am thankful for are directly or indirectly the result of my own choices. I/ we could make choices that created animousity and unhappiness in our home. We could choose to be idle or underemployed and struggle for basics like shelter and food. We could spend beyond our means and have constant worries about money. Of course luck is a factor. Right now lots of decent hard working folks are either unemployed or seriously underemployed and really struggling. If they live well within their means and have some savings they are better off but in a long enough under/ unemployment most everybody will start to have serious problems. Folks can make the right choices and have continual health issues.

It has been a pretty good Thanksgiving so far. Went to bed pretty early yesterday and slept till almost 10. Had a pretty relaxing morning just chilling out then Little Sis, Walker and I went to do some local sight seeing. It is pretty good holiday weather. Right around freezing with a bit of snow on the ground. Just enough to cover rooftops, trees and lawns giving the nice scenic winter look but not enough to muck up the roads and make it hard to get around. The food is cooking and we are all sitting around and talking. Shortly it will be coctail and appetizer time which is always fun.

We are having a sort of 'Orphans Thanksgiving' as always. Wifey cooks a bunch of food and we invite everybody who can use a place to go and feed whoever comes. Relatives, neighbors, co workers or whatever. It makes for interesting groups of people but is good times.

Well I am going to go and enjoy a lot of food, some great scotch and family.

Happy Thanksgiving

Have a Wonderful Thanksgiving and a Reasonable Christmas

My sister has been able to come over here for awhile and will be here for Thanksgiving which is pretty cool. We are going to have a quiet hodge podge Thanksgiving tomorrow. I'm sure looking forward to a relaxing day full of laying around, good food and drink.

It is about the time that if you aren't a real early shopper you are getting into gear for Christmas. I urge you to only spend what you can honestly afford. People who are worth giving to wouldn't want you to spend money you can't afford on stuff for them. Here are some ways that have helped us to spend reasonably.

First is to crunch the numbers and figure out what you have to spend. This sounds so stupidly basic but it is impossible to spend within your means if you do not know what your means are. It could be $50 or $5,000, the number isn't so important as having accurately identified what you can afford.

Next is to stick to the number you have figured out. I find it best to separate this kind of pool of money lest it intermingles with normal operating funds. You might then find yourself with a lot of nice presents and short on rent or with some extra groceries or fun money and not much for presents. In any case either way it is not the desired result. Maybe use a spare bank account or something. If things are real tight it is hard to bust a budget if you have an envelope of cash.

To make that amount I find it very helpful to identify who you are buying for and come up with a pretty firm amount you can spend per person. I'm talking you are buying for X people and have Y dollars so assuming you want to spend the same amount on each person it would be Z a piece. Of course you do not have to spend the same amount of money on each person. If you want to spend half your budget on one person then divide the rest up that is cool so long as it all adds up. The reason you need to do this is so that you don't realize you've spent 3/4's of your money on 1/4 of the presents you need to buy and end up going over to close the difference. I personally suggest for those on a tight budget keeping a reserve of 10-20 percent. This is helpful first because especially in places with sales tax everything costs weird amounts. A thing that says $20 on the tag is $21 out the door which is problematic when your $200 budget needs to purchase 10 gifts. Also there is always that one time when you find a perfect gift for someone which is just a bit more then you planned.

Have a wonderful holiday season but don't go broke doing it.

Not Good, Just Less Bad

I saw something interesting on the yahoo main page today. It is an article called The Myth of Good Debt. Certainly it is good for a coffee break or a few minutes of internet time wasting.

The whole subject of "good debt" vs bad debt has always kind of bothered me. Plain and simple debt is bad. You are promising future earnings for something now. You are almost surely paying interest for this service.

To be honest I think it is more like kind of bad debt and really bad debt. I would characterize home mortgages and education is kind of bad and consumer debt, credit cards, car loans and the like and really bad debt. The label good implies that it is smart to have this debt and it does great things for you. Sometimes that is right. In particular getting a college degree greatly increases (on average) your earning power. If you could figure a way to get through school with no debt or low debt that is ideal. However since educational costs have increased greatly beyond inflation or typical low level (working your way through school type job) wages that isn't always realistic.

Tangent begins- Also I would submit to some people that working your way through school at a low paying job and taking classes part time isn't the best route anyway. I have known a lot of people who had significant life problems as well as academic difficulties that lead to them not finishing school. They take a class here and another there and periodically have to drop out due to life reasons or even fail classes. Screwing up and not getting to a place where they can earn a comfortably livable wage and then continuing to earn 7-12 bucks an hour is pretty common. These folks then whine about how life is so hard and it isn't fair and generally have a long term pity party. What would often be a better course of action is to decrease their lifestyle if applicable, work less and borrow just enough to make up the difference. The difference between going to school and working 12-20 hours a week or 30-40 is huge. At minimum wage or close the amount of money we are talking about isn't that big. They could focus on school more and get it done at a decent pace. It probably will not be too hard to pay back said money with their increased future earnings. This is basically what I did and while I should have borrowed a bit less lived a bit cheaper it has worked out pretty well for us so far. End tangent.

With educational expenses should come degrees or certifications that significantly boost your earning power. I have got news for everybody. The days when a guy could graduate high school and  fall into a comfortably paying job doing work trained monkeys could do are over. We could talk about why this has happened but it doesn't change that it has. Especially with today's economy and jobs being scare you need to be marketable.

Mortgages are slightly worse than educational expenses IMO. I say this is because they do not have the same kind of exponential payoff as education (if properly targeted and used). Also the returns are generally less of a sure thing. House prices have a great long term track record but the short-mid term can be wild.

It would take a really long time for most people to save the cash to buy a traditional home outright. There are certainly some benefits to alternative housing but if you don't want to go that way the options are saving a lot of money for a very long time or getting a mortgage. Certainly paying the landlords mortgage for decades instead of your own and not getting the tax benefits or the appreciation in value doesn't make any sort of sense.

Getting a decent fixed mortgage you can actually afford on a home makes good sense for somebody in a stable financial place with some savings. As you noticed that sentence was kind of complicated. Maybe adjustable rate type mortgages or other exotic options make sense for some smart people in some situations. However for most people they are a horrible decision. If you can't afford a fixed rate it means you can't afford the home. Stability is very important as even short mortgages last many years and you need to be able to make that payment every month. Personally I have seen a lot of people get into trouble when they happen to get a job that pays somewhat better than they can expect elsewhere, 10 dollar an hour type guy earning 13 or a job that pays 70k instead of 55. The issue comes when they get a loan they can afford at their current higher wages and for whatever reason (laid off, fired, decide to change fields, etc) they end up changing jobs. Think about how much you could make at another job. Also having a safety net in the form of an emergency fund is essential. You've got to be able to deal with that month the car breaks or being out of work for awhile. I think Chief Instructor said once that a month of looking for every ten thousand dollars in salary is a guideline.

Part of my concern is that the concept of "good debt" leads to an attitude that having this debt is normal and even smart. Yeah it smart to increase your earning power with a degree and eventually purchase a home. However it is really smart to pay off that student loan as fast as possible and in time the home too. Having a mortgage (for the right person) beats the heck out of renting but owning a home free and clear beats the heck out of having a mortgage. I think it is also worth noting that if you buy a modest home you can actually afford paying it off at an accelerated rate is probably realistic. If you get absolutely as much home as you can make the payments on of course it isn't realistic to pay 10, 20, 50 or even 100% extra principle payments.

Cars I would classify as the best or most understandable of the "bad debt". Buying cars with cash is ideal. However "clunkers" can have some real problems. Some folks are good at fixing cars or just lucky and others have horrible luck. Often clunkers are unreliable and just $400 the heck out of you until they die. Basically if you aren't able to save a decent bit of cash and need a car for transportation you're pretty much stuck getting a loan. The real problem is how expensive of a car you get. For example awhile back my little sister found herself needing a decent reliable car. She went and got a loan to pay for a few year old basic car. Not a junker but also not new or fancy or anything like that. She paid it off faster than the loans planned life and still drives it. You need reliable transportation, not a new Mercedes. Look at it this way. If you can't afford to pay cash it means you aren't in a great spot for getting this car so be reasonable.

Consumer loans and credit card debt and such are just bad. The best case is that you use these as a sort of emergency fund because you haven't saved a couple months worth of expenses. This is bad because if you can't afford this stuff now why would you think it will be easier to afford later. I am a realist and I know things happen. I can also note that for some strange reason things seem to happen a lot more to folks who do not have emergency funds. Some unforeseen stuff comes up that has to happen right away. Replacing a key household appliance is a good example. Lets say your washer goes out. You get a new one from Sears and finance it then pay it off over a couple paychecks. Not insane. [However what if something bigger happens. Putting a months worth of living expenses from some down time at work on a credit card could take forever to dig out of. ] However using consumer loans to get all new appliances you don't really need for the whole house is insane.

My observation is that people rarely get into consumer or credit card debt trouble because of using them to ride out an emergency. People get into trouble here by using credit to live beyond their means buying this and that and the other thing which they can't afford and almost certainly don't need.

Sometimes debt makes sense. It can be understandable and even a good decision. However do not forget that at the end of the day no matter how "good" debt is it's still a promise of money you haven't even earned yet. Use it responsibly and try to get out of it as quickly as possible.